June 12, 2025
June 2025 WASDE REPORT SUMMARY AND NOTES:
Today’s report was viewed in line with pre-report expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Given geopolitical uncertainty on the future of U.S. trade relations, the following note was included in today’s commentary:
NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication and assumes that these policies remain in place for the duration of the forecast period.
Market attention will continue to focus on developing U.S. trade relations, weather across the U.S. Midwest and its impact on yield potential, and South American harvest results. USDA will release its Acreage report at the end of the month, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area and will be included in next month’s WASDE. USDA will also release its quarterly Grain Stocks report at the end of the month, providing insight into indicated disappearance levels over the past 3 months.
Corn
For corn, the domestic 2025/26 balance sheet called for lower beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels based on an increase in old crop exports. No changes were made to production or new crop use categories. Ending stocks were lowered to 1.750 billion bushels. This was lower than the average pre-report estimate of 1.792 billion bushels but within the range of estimates (1.655 to 2.135 billion range). Global corn production was increased while foreign ending stocks were decreased. Pegged at 275.2 million metric tons, global ending stocks were down 2.6 million from last month and near the low end of the range of pre-report estimates tons (275 to 285 million range).
Old crop corn exports increased by 50 million bushels based on pace of sales and shipments:
Major exporter ending stocks pegged to fall for third-straight year:
New crop stocks-to-use ratio pegged at 11.32 percent:
Soybeans
For soybeans, the domestic 2025/26 balance sheet called for no changes to the domestic balance sheet. Ending stocks were unchanged at 295 million bushels, below the average pre-report estimate of 302 million bushels but within the range of estimates (285 to 394 million range). Global soybean production was unchanged. Global beginning stocks were increased marginally based on slower-than-expected crush for China. Global ending stocks were raised by 1.0 million tons to 125.3 million, primarily on higher Chinese stocks. This was above the average pre-report estimate of 124.6 million metric tons but within the range of estimates (123.4 to 126.0 million range).
Chinese soybean imports pegged to plateau:
Domestic stocks-to-use ratio expected to remain near lower end of the range over the past 30 years as crush pegged at record highs:
Wheat
For wheat, the domestic 2025/26 balance sheet called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies were raised minimally on higher output. Exports were raised by 25 million bushels to 825 million on strong early season sales, especially for Hard Red Winter wheat. Ending stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to 898 million. This would be 7 percent higher than a year ago and below the average pre-report estimate of 916 million bushels (868 to 948 million range). The global wheat outlook called for reduced supplies, higher trade, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks in Russia more than offset higher production for the EU and India. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 3.0 million tons to 262.8 million, slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate of 265.1 million metric tons. Most of this reduction took place in Russia, Iraq, and Turkey.
All wheat export sales increased from last month, expected to remain historically low:
Major exporter stocks-to-use ratio pegged to fall for third-straight year:
