MARCH 2024 WASDE REPORT SUMMARY AND NOTES:

The March WASDE report was viewed as relatively neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat as balance sheets were in line with expectations. Market attention will begin to shift toward domestic production potential and the release of the Prospective Plantings report on March 28.

For corn, the domestic 2023/24 balance sheet was unchanged from last month. The season-average corn price received by farmers was decreased to $4.75 per bushel. The global balance sheet called for lower production with declines for South Africa, Ukraine, Russia, and Mexico. Corn production in Argentina was increased by 1 million metric tons from last month to 56 million. Brazilian corn production was unchanged from last month at 124 million metric tons. This was slightly larger than the average pre-report estimate of 122.4 million but within the range of expectations (118 to 125 million). Global ending stocks were reduced slightly to 319.63 million metric tons, nearly identical to the analysts’ average pre-report estimate.

Combined corn production in Brazil and Argentina to remain record large:

Global ending stocks pegged at highest level since 2018/19:

The domestic soybean 2023/24 balance sheet was unchanged from last month. The global balance sheet called for lower and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Brazilian soybean production was pegged at 155 million metric tons. This was slightly above analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 152.5 million but within the range of estimates (148 to 156 million). Argentina soybean production was forecast at 50 million metric tons, nearly identical to the average pre-report estimate. Global ending stocks fell slightly from last month’s estimate but were in line with analysts’ expectations.

Soybean production in Argentina and Brazil expected to remain record large despite slightly reduction in Brazilian estimate:

Major soybean exporter ending stocks near highest levels over the past 15 years:

The 2023/24 domestic wheat balance sheet called for lower exports and higher ending stocks. Ending stocks were increased by 15 million bushels to 673 million. This was larger than analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 658 million bushels but within the range of estimates. The global balance sheet called for larger supplies, increased use, and reduced stocks. Supplies were increased for Australia, Russia, and Argentina. Projected global ending stocks were lowered to 258.8 million metric tons, slightly lower than analysts’ pre-report estimate. If realized, this would mark the lowest ending stocks since 2015/16.

Global ending stocks pegged lower for 4th straight year:

Read More Articles:

2024 Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Summary

February 2024 WASDE Report and Summary

Grain Risk Management in Commodity Hedging

Questions?
Contact us here