February 08, 2024
The February WASDE report was viewed as relatively neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat as domestic ending stocks are estimated near pre-report expectations. USDA did address continued expectations for lower Brazilian corn production in the report:
The 2023/24 corn domestic balance sheet made one small change to food use, reducing demand by 10 million bushels due to lower use for glucose and dextrose YTD. With all other categories on pace to meet USDA estimates, ending stocks are forecast up 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. While higher than the pre-report average estimate, the figure is still within the range of expectations which ranged from 2.065-2.212 billion bushels. Minor adjustments were made to the global balance sheet as well. USDA did mention increased exports from Ukraine for the current marketing year as well as Argentina for the previous marketing year based on shipment data.
Domestic stocks-to-use ratio at its highest level since 2018/19:
Despite less-than-ideal weather, Brazilian production would represent 2nd highest on record, Argentina looking at record production:
The domestic soybean 2023/24 balance sheet called for lower expected exports reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January as well as increased competition with Brazil. This being the sole adjustment to the balance sheet this month, ending stocks are forecast higher by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. This comes in slightly above the high-end of pre-report estimates (245-312 million bushels). While this could be viewed as negative, the market seems to have been pricing in the terrible shipment pace as seen in the chart below. Minimal adjustments were made to the global balance sheet.
Domestic shipping continues to fall behind the seasonal pace needed to meet USDA forecasts for several months:
Domestic stocks-to-use continues to climb, highest since 2019/20:
Brazilian soybean production expected to be tied for a record-high 156 million metric tons:
The 2023/24 domestic wheat balance sheet had only one minor adjustment to the balance sheet with USDA lowering food use by 10 million bushels. Food use is lowered by 10 million bushels due to lower wheat flour grind as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report issued on February 1. With all other categories left unchanged, domestic ending stocks are forecast at 658 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. World ending stocks are generally unchanged. USDA does mention increases for supply and demand, with demand increases outpacing the increase in supply expectations. While global ending supplies are little changed from last month at 259.5 MMT, this would represent the lowest stockpile total since the 2015/16 marketing year.
Domestic all wheat use pegged at lowest level in at least 30 years:
Domestic stocks-to-use higher than a year ago, near lower end of range over past decade:
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