Margin Watch: August

September 1, 2010

Hog Margins deteriorated a little further since the middle of the month, as feed costs have continued to rise based upon higher corn and soybean meal prices. Hog values have held relatively steady, moving higher initially since the middle of August, but dropping over the past ...

Margin Watch: Mid-August

August 17, 2010

Hog Margins deteriorated since the end of July, particularly in nearby Q3, although most of that drop is due to the fact that the margin is now being calculated solely off the October hog contract with August now expired. Deferred margins however are still anywhere from $1.25-$3...

Margin Watch: July

July 30, 2010

Hog Margins improved dramatically since the middle of July, as feed costs have held relatively steady while hog prices have soared. Production margins would actually have improved more if not for a sharp rally in corn and soybean meal prices over the past week that reversed a p...

Margin Watch: Mid-July

July 15, 2010

Hog Margins deteriorated over the past two weeks, although still exist at very high historical levels–at or well above the 90th percentile of the past 5 years. The main culprit for the lower margins recently has been surging feed costs, with both corn and soybean meal posti...

Margin Watch: May

June 1, 2010

Hog Margins generally improved since the middle of May, particularly out in Q1 2011 which was up nearly $1.00/cwt. over the past two weeks. We began tracking Q2 2011 this period, which like the nearby second quarter is reflecting a forward profit margin for next summer well above...

Margin Watch: Mid May

May 17, 2010

Hog Margins continued to decline slightly since the end of April, as hog prices generally have dropped more than feed costs with all three markets in retreat. Even with the decline however, both spot and forward margins out into 2011 remain very high from a historical perspective...

Margin Watch: April 2010

May 3, 2010

Hog Margins slipped slightly since the middle of April, although remain at or above the 95th percentile of the past 5 years. April was truly memorable in that margins for nearby Q2 and Q3 made all-time highs from a historical perspective, allowing hog producers to secure profitab...

Margin Watch: Mid-April 2010

April 16, 2010

Hog Margins continued to improve during the first half of April, and are now between the 95th and 100th percentile over both the last 5 and 10 years. This essentially means that for some periods, particularly the spot period of the second quarter, the profit margin has never been...

Margin Watch: March

April 1, 2010

Hog Margins improved dramatically since the middle of March, aided by the USDA’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report released last week, as well as this morning’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports. The hog report revealed a smaller breeding herd ...

Margin Watch: Mid-March

March 15, 2010

Hog Margins showed a significant improvement since the end of February, particularly for the second half of 2010 and into 2011. Hog production margins are now above the 90th percentile of the past 5 years throughout 2010, meaning that producers have only seen higher profitabilit...

Margin Watch: February

March 2, 2010

Hog Margins continued to improve since the middle of February, and now are sitting at the highest levels we have seen since we began tracking them for each of these forward periods. In particular, summer margins for Q2 and Q3 are very strong, above the 90th percentile of the past...

Margin Watch: Mid-February

February 16, 2010

Hog Margins held steady in nearby Q1 and Q2 over the past two weeks, but improved further in both Q3 and Q4. Historically, margins now sit above the 80th percentile in both the second and third quarters, meaning they have only been more profitable less than 20% of the time over t...

Margin Watch: January

February 1, 2010

Hog Margins deteriorated since the middle of January, as a sharp drop in hog prices more than offset a smaller decline in corn and soybean meal futures. Weather-related supply disruptions during the first half of the month seemed to have improved recently, although actual pig sh...

Margin Watch: Mid-January

January 19, 2010

Hog Margins improved significantly following the latest USDA report, as the data was considered particularly bearish for the corn market. Contrary to expectations, corn production increased 230 million bushels based on both a higher harvested area and yield forecast, despite the ...

Margin Watch: December

January 4, 2010

Hog Margins remained relatively flat through the second half of the month, although slight deterioration was noted as corn rallied while hog and soybean meal prices held steady. The much-anticipated USDA Hogs and Pigs report contained few surprises, but if anything was considered...

Margin Watch: Mid-December

December 17, 2009

Hog Margins held relatively steady through the first half of December, with movements in hog & feed prices largely offsetting. Despite expectations for feed prices to succumb to pressure from year-end profit-taking and thin trading conditions, corn and meal futures remain qu...

Margin Watch Notes: November

December 3, 2009

Hogs Margins improved since the middle of November as hog futures increased while corn was relatively flat, although soymeal futures advanced sharply. Hog prices continue to firm – particularly in nearby periods – due to indications of stronger demand reflected in higher cu...

Margin Watch Notes: Mid November

November 16, 2009

Hog Margin Watch Hog margins deteriorated in the first half of November due primarily to a selloff in hog futures that was concentrated on nearby contracts. Feed prices held relatively steady over the past two weeks, although there is a sense that corn prices in particular could...

Margin Watch Notes: October

November 2, 2009

Hog Margin Watch Hog margins improved during the last half of October as the rally in hog futures continued while feed prices began to soften. Most of the hog market strength has been focused on nearby contracts where margins are still negative; however, optimism appears to be im...

Margin Watch Notes: Mid-October

October 15, 2009

Hog Margin Watch Margins remained relatively unchanged through the first half of October, as a higher price trend in hogs was largely offset by higher feed costs with rising corn and soybean meal prices. The USDA report last week confirmed higher yield estimates for both corn an...

Margin Watch Notes: September

September 30, 2009

Hog Margin Watch Margins were essentially flat through the second half of September, with minimal movement in the hog, corn and soybean meal markets. The USDA’s quarterly hog inventory data revealed the beginning signs of herd liquidation, although unfortunately not as sign...

Margin Watch Notes: Mid-September

September 15, 2009

Hog Margin Watch While still dismal from a historical standpoint, hog margins improved through the first half of September due primarily to a recovery in hog prices. On the feed side, corn prices were relatively flat over the past couple of weeks, although soybean meal showed no...