Dairy
Dairy margins dipped slightly since the middle of April as a sharp rise in corn and steady to lower milk prices combined to pressure profitability. In the bigger picture, forward margins still remain highly profitable, projected at or above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years through the first quarter of 2014. As such, the current situation continues to offer great opportunities for dairies to protect strong levels of historical profitability. USDA reported corn planting as of Sunday, April 28 at only 5% complete, the slowest pace in 20 years which caused futures to trade limit up on Monday. Much of the increased acreage this season is projected to come from the Dakotas and Minnesota according to the Prospective Plantings report in March, and continued planting delays in those states may lead … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins improved since the middle of April following higher cattle prices that more than offset an increase in corn costs over the past couple weeks. Deferred margins remain highly profitable against the October and December marketing periods in particular, existing above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years. According to NASS, commercial beef production in March totaled 2.038 billion pounds, down 5.6% from last year although adjusting for the difference in slaughter days production was only down 1.1% from 2012. It appears a significant increase in bulls and cows in the slaughter mix has caused the choice/select spread to widen out, with more lean cow meat coming to market. Beef demand remains … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have improved over the last half of April primarily due to much stronger basis values. The main feature during the period has been domestic weather conditions. April turned out to be a frigid month coupled with drenching rains which has delayed corn plantings significantly. NASS recently reported 5% of the crop has been seeded to date compared to 53% the same time last year and 36% on average for the past decade. The current seeding pace ties the slowest on record with 1984 as the slowest starts to the planting season. Slow plantings tend to reduce the overall crop size potential come harvest as intended acres could potentially shift to other crops that would not face as adverse conditions during the critical growth phases as corn otherwise would face. That said, it is important to note that … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Soybean margins are higher since the middle of April entirely due to significant increases in basis values that more than offset slightly weaker futures’ prices. News during the period has been sparse as harvest in South America is nearing 50% complete with no significant deviations from expectations and domestic plantings won’t begin in earnest for a couple of weeks. NOPA released its results for March crushings on April 15, reporting 137.1 million bushels were crushed in the month of March, 2 million bushels less than what was anticipated. Given the tight old crop stocks, exports and crush will play a significant role in … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have improved moderately since the middle of April, particularly for deferred 2013 margins. Weather has been the feature during the period as record to near-record rainfall was witnessed throughout the Plains and Midwest which has helped replenish topsoil moisture levels. The rains have no doubt helped the crop; however, snow and deep freezes have also occurred which has cut into final yield potential. Winter crop conditions as reported by NASS have deteriorated over the last few weeks with 33% currently reported to be in good-to-excellent condition while 35% of the crop remains in … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins continued to improve since the end of March as milk prices remain very firm while feed costs appear to have stabilized following a significant selloff late last month. From a historical perspective, forward margins are still above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years through the first quarter of 2014, offering great opportunities for dairies to protect strong levels of profitability. USDA released their April WASDE report last Wednesday, and corn ending stocks were estimated at 757 million bushels, up 125 million from March but 67 million below the average estimate as feed and residual use was not lowered as much as expected. Soybean ending stocks were left unchanged at 125 million bushels, and the monthly report noted a higher projection for … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins deteriorated sharply since the end of March following a combination of lower cattle prices and firmer trade in corn. Deferred margins remain quite high from a historical perspective as fall and winter marketing periods are still above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years, though down from a 10-year high. A drop in feeder cattle futures along with declining live cattle futures prevented a more severe drop in deferred forward margins relative to nearby marketing periods where feeders are already priced. USDA released their April WASDE report last Wednesday that increased corn ending stocks 125 million bushels from March to 757 million, although the figure was 67 million below the average pre-report estimate. Feed and residual use was not lowered as much as expected following the quarterly stocks report that showed March 1 corn stocks at 5.4 billion bushels, reflecting stronger demand assumptions for the second half of the crop year at lower price levels. Moreover, new-crop prices appear to be … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have weakened further since the beginning of April and are now back to levels last seen in June. USDA recently updated its estimate for 2012/13 endings stocks to 757 million bushels, up 125 million bushels from the March forecast. The increased stocks came primarily as a result of reduced feed and residual demand which was lowered 150 million bushels due to the larger-than-expected stocks reported in the Quarterly Stocks Report at the end of March. Exports were lowered by 25 million bushels to 800 million due to the continued slow pace of sales and shipments to date. Corn use for ethanol was increased 50 million bushels due to an expectation for greater production through the second half of the marketing year as production and blending margins have … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Nearby soybean margins have improved somewhat since the beginning of April due primarily to higher basis levels while deferred margins have weakened slightly. USDA recently updated its expectation for 2012/13 ending stocks reporting an unchanged view from March and ending stocks expected to be 125 million bushels. Although the stocks estimate remained unchanged, the USDA shifted stocks between categories and raised crush demand 20 million bushels due to the strong export pace of soybean meal as well as continued demand domestically. Exports were also raised by 5 million bushels addressing the strong pace of sales and shipments to date. Offsetting the increased demand was … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have improved since the beginning of April as both futures’ prices and basis values have increased. USDA recently increased its expectation for 2012/13 ending stocks 15 million bushels to 731 million bushels. The increase was a result of lower feed and residual expectations reflecting a lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March Quarterly Stocks Report. By class, soft red wheat’s balance sheet continues to tighten, as domestic use was increased 11 million bushels this month. Offsetting the increase were decreases for hard winter and hard spring wheat, whose balance sheets have … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins improved significantly since the middle of March due to a combination of both higher milk prices and lower feed costs. Margins for dairy producers are now at or above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years through the first quarter of 2014, offering tremendous opportunities for dairies to protect historically high levels of profitability. USDA released their quarterly grain stocks and Prospective Plantings report last Thursday, and the corn stocks figure in particular was quite bearish. USDA pegged March 1 corn stocks at 5.4 billion bushels, 370 million above the average trade guess and outside of the range of pre-report expectations between 4.916 and 5.248 billion bushels. The figure suggests much lower … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins improved since the middle of March, with deferred periods maintaining very high levels of historical profitability at well above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years. A sharp drop in corn prices that resulted from a bearish USDA quarterly stocks report was the main catalyst behind stronger profit margins over the past couple weeks. USDA reported March 1 corn stocks at 5.4 billion bushels, 370 million above the average trade guess and outside of the range of pre-report expectations between 4.916 and 5.248 billion bushels. The figure suggests domestic feed demand in the December-February quarter was down 50% from the first quarter and 30% below a year ago which is much different from what most traders and analysts had anticipated. As a result, it is likely the USDA will lower … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Nearby corn margins have improved since the beginning of March as both futures’ prices and basis have moved higher. The USDA recently updated its balance sheets for the 2012/13 crop year, reporting an unchanged outlook for ending stocks at 632 million bushels. Some shuffling between categories did occur, as feed demand was increased by 100 million bushels due to the expanding poultry sector. Demand for exports was lowered by 75 million bushels to 825 million bushels, the lowest since the 1971/72 crop year, due to the slow pace of sales and shipments to date. Imports were increased 25 million bushels. Domestic crop insurance levels have been set at $5.65/bushel and will play an important role in marketings this year given the disastrous drought witnessed last year. On the global front, the USDA reduced expected … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Soybean margins have declined since the middle of March as futures’ prices have set back. NASS recently reported soybean stocks in all positions at 999 million bushels, down 27% from last year. The figure came in above the average pre-report estimate but within the range of expectations and was viewed as somewhat bearish. The stocks figure implies a negative residual usage figure, primarily used as a balancing item, which has only occurred one other time during the second quarter. NASS also released the results of their planting intentions survey that was conducted over the first two weeks of March. U.S. farmers intend to plant 77.1 million acres this year, slightly below last year and well below industry expectations. Depending on spring weather, this lower seedings figure could help to support … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have declined significantly as both futures’ prices and basis values have weakened. NASS recently reported March 1 wheat stocks at 1.234 billion bushels, above market expectations and at the high end of the range of estimates. The figure implies a slower feed rate than expected and seems counter to anecdotal reports in the cash market with news of wheat making its way into feed rations and ethanol grind. NASS also reported all wheat acreage to be 56.4 million acres, up from 55.7 million acres last year and right on with the pre-report expectation. Focus has begun to shift to crop conditions of the winter crop as it comes out of dormancy. Although conditions remain low relative to historic metrics, conditions in many of the plains states have … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins improved slightly since the end of February due to an uptick in milk prices, particularly in deferred months. Forward margins remain at very high historical levels at or near the 90th percentile over the previous 10 years. This is offering dairy producers the opportunity to lock in or protect strong profitability through the first half of 2014, despite the fact that the spot period continues to be so weak. Corn prices were slightly higher as well over the past week as USDA’s March WASDE report was considered somewhat bullish. While ending stocks were left unchanged for corn, USDA did raise feed and residual usage 100 million bushels which historically is very … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins deteriorated further since the end of February and remain extremely depressed through the summer marketing periods although deferred margins against the October, December and February marketing periods where feeder cattle has yet to be placed are quite strong. In fact, deferred margins for the fall and winter marketing periods are all at or above the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years. As a result, there are good opportunities available for feedlots to protect their profitability ahead of buying and placing feeder cattle this spring. One factor in the weaker margins has been recent strength in corn. USDA’s March WASDE report was considered slightly bullish as USDA noted a 100 million bushel increase to their feed and residual estimate, although a similar cut to exports and a slight increase in the import projection left ending stocks unchanged. As adjustments to domestic demand estimates are historically rare in front of a quarterly stocks report, the move signifies conviction of the strength in domestic livestock demand and is a reminder of how … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Nearby corn margins have improved since the beginning of March as both futures’ prices and basis have moved higher. The USDA recently updated its balance sheets for the 2012/13 crop year, reporting an unchanged outlook for ending stocks at 632 million bushels. Some shuffling between categories did occur, as feed demand was increased by 100 million bushels due to the expanding poultry sector. Demand for exports was lowered by 75 million bushels to 825 million bushels, the lowest since the 1971/72 crop year, due to the slow pace of sales and shipments to date. Imports were increased 25 million bushels. Domestic crop insurance levels have been set at $5.65/bushel and will play an important role in marketings this year given the disastrous drought witnessed last year. On the global front, the USDA reduced expected … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Soybean margins improved since the beginning of March due to tremendous strength in basis values, increasing nearly 35 cents per bushel over the period while prices moved lower. The USDA reported ending stocks unchanged from February at 125 million bushels. The soybean meal balance sheet was adjusted slightly, as exports were raised by 100,000 short tons due to the fast pace of sales and shipments to date. Offsetting the increased sales was a like amount of increases of imports. Domestic crop insurance levels have been set at $12.87 per bushel, slightly higher than last year and will play an important role in marketing this year. NOPA also reported the member crush for February to be 136.3 million bushels, on par with last year, but below expectations. On the global front, Brazilian export logistics are … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have been flat since the beginning of March as basis values are slightly lower while futures’ prices are slightly higher. U.S. wheat continues to be priced roughly $25-30/MT lower than all other origins and importers are beginning to take note. Export sales and shipments have picked up over the last two weeks and are now on pace to meet the USDA’s estimate. Wheat prices are at parity with corn prices and this continues to beg the question whether wheat will enter into feed rations as a substitute? Some of this may be occurring now, with the recent news of wheat being railed to Southern feedlots due to lower rail costs. The Quarterly Stocks report at the end of March will help confirm whether further substitution is occurring. Crop conditions continue to improve throughout the Plains, but drought conditions remain. Spring rains will be needed to help the crop as it comes out of dormancy. On the global front, the USDA recently increased … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins declined over the past two weeks as the milk market has come under pressure at the same time that feed costs have been on the rise. Nearby margins in spot Q1 are now reflecting a loss and well below average at the 25th percentile, although deferred margins in the second half of 2013 remain quite strong over the 80th percentile from a historical basis. The difference between the two periods continues to stem from the fact that feed costs are projected to be sharply lower for new-crop supplies while milk prices are projected to be at a premium to nearby values. January’s monthly dairy slaughter was the highest in three decades at 296,000 head as producers react to high feed costs and negative margins, suggesting milk production will eventually … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins continued the trend that has been in place since the beginning of the month where profitability for groups currently on feed deteriorated while deferred margins for animals yet to be purchased and placed improved. Profit margins against the October, December and February marketing periods all remain well above the 90th percentile of the past 10 years and offer excellent opportunities to secure a strong margin ahead of feeder cattle being placed this spring and summer. Cattle prices appear to have stabilized following extended weakness through the month as beef is starting to firm. The choice cutout is currently up $3.81 from a week ago and the select cutout is up $5.56 from last Thursday. The figures are encouraging given that recent … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Nearby corn margins have remained relatively flat since the middle of February while deferred corn margins have fallen some. The USDA recently released its annual Baseline Projections for the next 10 years and sees corn stocks rising significantly after this year’s harvest and potentially ending the last few years of tight stocks. These forecasts are based on historical averages for plantings as well as moving back to a trendline yield which is far from being proven. The USDA will release its first official estimate for new crop ending stocks in the May WASDE report. Domestically, both exports and ethanol production have remained subdued due to persistently high … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Nearby soybean margins improved since the middle of February while deferred 2013 soybean margins improved purely from basis appreciation as futures’ prices were flat for the period. The USDA recently released its annual Baseline Projections for the next 10 years and sees soybean stocks rising only slightly for the coming crop year as increased production expectations are likely to be consumed by greater demand. The first official estimate for the new crop will be released with the May WASDE report. NOPA reported crush figures for January at 158.2 million bushels, slightly lower than December’s rate but up 15.8 million bushels from January 2012 and the second largest January crush on record. The crush pace has remained … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have deteriorated further since the middle of February as both basis levels and futures’ prices have weakened. Exports have picked up in recent weeks as the U.S. wheat market continues to be competitively priced on a global scale. Currently, U.S. wheat is priced at a discount of $25-30/MT to all other origins. Further export business is expected given the current pricing. As prices have come down throughout February, wheat is now priced roughly at parity with corn and begs the question; will wheat enter feed rations at these levels? While it makes sense on a price basis as well as a protein basis, confirmation is lacking but could be revealed at the end of March with the … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins improved since the end of January, as feed costs have been declining while milk prices have largely held steady over the past two weeks. Deferred margins in the second half of 2013 remain exceptionally strong, at the 90th percentile of the previous 10 years. USDA released their February WASDE report which raised ending stocks for corn while soybean ending stocks were reduced. Both figures were largely in line with pre-report estimates, as the market was expecting lower corn exports as well as higher domestic soybean processing. World corn ending stocks however increased over 2 million tons from last month which was above the range of estimates as South American crop production was not reduced as much as anticipated. A similar trend was noted for soybeans as losses in Argentina were largely made up for by increases in Brazil’s estimated production. Meanwhile, milk prices appear to be … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins were mixed since the end of January, declining in nearby marketing periods but improving in deferred slots. Both corn and cattle markets have generally been weaker over the past two weeks, so the main point of difference is whether or not feeder contracts have already been priced. Poor feedlot margins have all but removed any demand interest for cash feeders, and that market has been in a virtual freefall to start the month of February. Meanwhile, wholesale beef prices have been exceptionally weak, and this is weighing on fat cattle prices as packer margins are quite poor. The choice beef cutout is down around 2.5% from last year which is a surprise for many industry observers who have been expecting higher beef prices in 2013. Both the loin and round primals are down noticeably from 2012 as consumers appear to be turned off from high priced steaks at the meat counter. The loin primal alone is responsible for … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have lost value since the beginning of February as futures’ prices have fallen while basis levels have remained elevated. The USDA recently updated its forecast for 2012/13 ending stocks, raising ending stocks 30 million bushels to 632 million bushels due primarily to a reduced expectation for exports as the U.S. continues to find increased global competition. The demand outlook has been neutral over the past few months. Demand for exports has continued to fall short of prior expectations, while feed demand is projected to remain firm given the strength of forward livestock margins. The USDA left ethanol demand unchanged, although weekly output has fallen below the 10% expected reduction from last year’s usage level. On the global front, USDA projects … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Both nearby and deferred soybean margins deteriorated sharply since the beginning of February as both futures’ prices and basis levels have weakened. The USDA updated its projection for 2012/13 ending stocks recently, dropping final stocks 10 million bushels to 125 million bushels. The reduction in stocks came as a result of increased expectations for the crush of the like amount. Soy product demand has remained quite strong throughout the winter months, with domestic disappearance as well as exports showing no signs of slowing. As a result, domestic basis levels continue to hover as near-record highs for this time of year which has continued to incentivize crushers to produce more. On the global side, the USDA estimated global supplies slightly higher from January. The major adjustments to the global balance sheet were seen in … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have deteriorated since the beginning of February as greatly improved basis levels could not make up for largely lower futures’ prices. The USDA recently updated its estimate for ending stocks, lowering the projection 25 million bushels to 691 million bushels. The reduced stocks figure was a result of increased demand expectations for feed use. Historically, adjustments to feed use occur after quarterly stocks reports, and this update was a positive surprise. Currently, wheat is priced competitively to enter into feed rations as a substitute for corn after basis considerations are calculated, particularly in the Southeast. Crop conditions will regai … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins were mixed over the first two weeks of 2013, weakening in nearby production periods but strengthening in the second half of the year. A recent selloff in milk compounded the impact of a bullish USDA report for corn which combined to pressure dairy profit margins. The corn stocks figure in particular was quite bullish relative to pre-report trade expectations. USDA pegged Dec 1 stocks at 8.03 billion bushels, 180 million bushels below the average trade guess and below the range of estimates between 8.05-8.45 billion. The figure suggests much stronger feed demand during the first quarter of the marketing year, and USDA raised their feed and residual estimate as a result by 300 million bushels. The adjustment more than offset a 200 million bushel cut to exports as well as a 55 million bushel increase to the production forecast, lowering ending stocks 44 million bushels and tightening … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins were mixed to start off the New Year, deteriorating sharply in nearby marketing periods but strengthening further out in 2013. The December 2013 marketing period looks particularly strong, having gained appreciably over the past two weeks and now at the 95th percentile of the past five years. The change in margins has been a function of both increased feed costs and lower cattle prices. On the feed side, USDA’s January crop report was particularly bullish for corn with regard to the quarterly stocks figure. Corn stocks on Dec 1 were pegged at 8.03 billion bushels, 180 million below the average trade guess and outside of the range of pre-report estimates between 8.05-8.45 billion. The number suggests stronger Sep-Nov disappearance than had been anticipated, and caused USDA to increase their feed and residual forecast in the WASDE by 300 million bushels. The adjustment more than offset a 55 million bushel … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have improved slightly since the middle of October as futures prices have strengthened while basis levels remain elevated. Harvest progress continues to advance at a rapid, near-record pace this year, with 91% of the crop harvested to date. Debates surrounding total production remain, as some market participants argue the USDA is still too high on the harvested acres estimate. USDA announced it would not make any changes to abandonment until the January crop report when production for the crop year is finalized. Demand prospects therefore will be the main focus for price direction in the near-term. Weekly ethanol production remains below last year’s level and is currently running 7.8% behind last year’s pace while the USDA estimates a slowing of 10% for the crop year. Export demand has been quite poor for some time, with roughly 403 million bushels sold – 35% of the total projected exports for the marketing year. Although the quantity sold represents … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Nearby soybean margins have improved since the middle of October while deferred 2013 soybean margins have likewise strengthened during the period. Soybean harvest has advanced at a near-record pace this year as plant maturation occurred much earlier than normal due to the extreme heat this summer and early spring planting. The latest reports show that 87% of the crop has been harvested. With harvest advanced, the market will begin determining whether demand forecasts are achievable. NOPA recently released its crush figure for September, reporting 119.7 million bushels crushed for the month, up from 110.3 last year. NOPA members represent roughly 95% of all domestic crushing plants which would translate to approximately 126 million bushels crushed for the month including non-members of NOPA. The current USDA projection is for a crush rate of 1.54 billion bushels, translating to just over 128 million bushels per month. Export sales and shipments have been quite … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have strengthened a bit since the middle of October as futures prices have moved higher. Winter wheat plantings are now 88% complete with 63% of the crop emerged. Weather forecasts are slightly wetter past November 1 which should help early crop development prior to dormancy. Initial crop conditions were reported to be 40% good-to-excellent versus 46% at this time last year. On the global front, Ukraine recently announced a ban on exports after November 15 due to the poor harvest this past year and a lack of exportable surpluses. Russia also has produced a smaller crop and has seen domestic prices for wheat, flour, and barley increase of late causing the market to worry whether they will likewise place restrictions on exports as they did in 2010. With Egypt and China sourcing large quantities of wheat recently, the E.U. will be relied upon fulfill demand. There is concern however that the E.U. will not be able to meet all this … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins were mixed over the first two weeks of 2013, weakening in nearby production periods but strengthening in the second half of the year. A recent selloff in milk compounded the impact of a bullish USDA report for corn which combined to pressure dairy profit margins. The corn stocks figure in particular was quite bullish relative to pre-report trade expectations. USDA pegged Dec 1 stocks at 8.03 billion bushels, 180 million bushels below the average trade guess and below the range of estimates between 8.05-8.45 billion. The figure suggests much stronger feed demand during the first quarter of the marketing year, and USDA raised their feed and residual estimate as a result by 300 million bushels. The adjustment more than offset a 200 million bushel cut to exports as well as a 55 million bushel increase to the production forecast, lowering ending stocks 44 million bushels and tightening the domestic stocks/use ratio to 5.3%. Meanwhile, the … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins were mixed to start off the New Year, deteriorating sharply in nearby marketing periods but strengthening further out in 2013. The December 2013 marketing period looks particularly strong, having gained appreciably over the past two weeks and now at the 95th percentile of the past five years. The change in margins has been a function of both increased feed costs and lower cattle prices. On the feed side, USDA’s January crop report was particularly bullish for corn with regard to the quarterly stocks figure. Corn stocks on Dec 1 were pegged at 8.03 billion bushels, 180 million below the average trade guess and outside of the range of pre-report estimates between 8.05-8.45 billion. The number suggests stronger Sep-Nov disappearance than had been anticipated, and caused USDA to … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have improved slightly since the middle of October as futures prices have strengthened while basis levels remain elevated. Harvest progress continues to advance at a rapid, near-record pace this year, with 91% of the crop harvested to date. Debates surrounding total production remain, as some market participants argue the USDA is still too high on the harvested acres estimate. USDA announced it would not make any changes to abandonment until the January crop report when production for the crop year is finalized. Demand prospects therefore will be the main focus for price direction in the near-term. Weekly ethanol production remains below last year’s level and is currently running 7.8% behind last year’s pace while the USDA estimates a slowing of 10% for the crop year. Export demand has been quite poor for some time, with roughly 403 million bushels sold – 35% of the total projected exports for the marketing year. Although the quantity sold represents … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Nearby soybean margins have improved since the middle of October while deferred 2013 soybean margins have likewise strengthened during the period. Soybean harvest has advanced at a near-record pace this year as plant maturation occurred much earlier than normal due to the extreme heat this summer and early spring planting. The latest reports show that 87% of the crop has been harvested. With harvest advanced, the market will begin determining whether demand forecasts are achievable. NOPA recently released its crush figure for September, reporting 119.7 million bushels crushed for the month, up from 110.3 last year. NOPA members represent roughly 95% of all domestic crushing plants which would translate to approximately 126 million bushels crushed for the month including non-members of NOPA. The current USDA projection is for a … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have strengthened a bit since the middle of October as futures prices have moved higher. Winter wheat plantings are now 88% complete with 63% of the crop emerged. Weather forecasts are slightly wetter past November 1 which should help early crop development prior to dormancy. Initial crop conditions were reported to be 40% good-to-excellent versus 46% at this time last year. On the global front, Ukraine recently announced a ban on exports after November 15 due to the poor harvest this past year and a lack of exportable surpluses. Russia also has produced a smaller crop and has seen domestic prices for wheat, flour, and barley increase of late causing the market to worry whether they will likewise place restrictions on exports as they did in 2010. With Egypt and China sourcing large quantities of wheat recently, the E.U. will be relied upon fulfill demand. There is concern however that the … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins continued their mixed trend, strengthening in some periods while weakening in others, but were largely steady to finish off the month of December. Feed prices have generally been declining over the past couple weeks as improved weather in South America has taken more risk premium out of the market. Corn demand remains poor with dismal weekly export sales and negative ethanol margins evident. The market will focus on the level of domestic feed demand to be revealed in the quarterly stocks report January 11. Soybean meal demand has been stronger, although there is now a fairly limited window of time before South American supplies will become available to the world market. Milk prices will avoid the “dairy … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins deteriorated since the middle of the month, although December generally has witnessed a trend of improving margins for beef cattle finishers. From a historical perspective, margins remain at relatively high percentiles throughout 2013 with the lone exception of the August marketing period where they are currently projected negative at the 63rd percentile of the past five years. To some extent, margins have come under pressure from weakness in cattle following a slightly bearish December Cattle on Feed report. USDA noted November placements at 1.923 million head, 5.6% lower than last year but 3% higher than the average of pre-report trade estimates. Placement weights were also higher in November, with the average of 683.1 pounds up 1.7% from last year and 0.6% above the 5-year average. Meanwhile, the November Cold Storage report showed … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have improved slightly since the middle of October as futures prices have strengthened while basis levels remain elevated. Harvest progress continues to advance at a rapid, near-record pace this year, with 91% of the crop harvested to date. Debates surrounding total production remain, as some market participants argue the USDA is still too high on the harvested acres estimate. USDA announced it would not make any changes to abandonment until the January crop report when production for the crop year is finalized. Demand prospects therefore will be the main focus for price direction in the near-term. Weekly ethanol production remains below last year’s level and is currently … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Nearby soybean margins have improved since the middle of October while deferred 2013 soybean margins have likewise strengthened during the period. Soybean harvest has advanced at a near-record pace this year as plant maturation occurred much earlier than normal due to the extreme heat this summer and early spring planting. The latest reports show that 87% of the crop has been harvested. With harvest advanced, the market will begin determining whether demand forecasts are achievable. NOPA recently released its crush figure for September, reporting 119.7 million bushels crushed for the month, up from 110.3 last year. NOPA members represent roughly 95% of all domestic crushing plants which would translate to approximately 126 million bushels crushed for the month including non-members of NOPA. The current USDA projection is for a crush rate of 1.54 billion bushels, translating to just over 128 million bushels per month. Export sales and shipments have been … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have strengthened a bit since the middle of October as futures prices have moved higher. Winter wheat plantings are now 88% complete with 63% of the crop emerged. Weather forecasts are slightly wetter past November 1 which should help early crop development prior to dormancy. Initial crop conditions were reported to be 40% good-to-excellent versus 46% at this time last year. On the global front, Ukraine recently announced a ban on exports after November 15 due to the poor harvest this past year and a lack of exportable surpluses. Russia also has produced a smaller crop and has seen domestic prices for wheat, flour, and barley increase of late causing … Get the Complete Report »

Dairy
Dairy margins were mixed since the beginning of December, weakening in Q1 but flat to stronger in all deferred periods. Feed prices were mixed over the period as demand for protein remains at historic levels globally while demand for corn and energy needs has been subdued. USDA recently increased the demand profile for soybean meal, increasing the estimate for exports by 300,000 short tons due to the rapid pace of sales and shipments to date and lowering domestic disappearance 100,000 short tons. Foreign demand for soybean meal continues to support prices. Corn prices remain range-bound as the marketplace has contended with lackluster domestic demand, production uncertainties out of South America and historically … Get the Complete Report »

Beef
Beef margins were mixed since the beginning of December, again strengthening in nearby marketing periods and weakening in August and October periods. From a historical basis, beef finishing margins remain strong for spring periods as well as for those in late 2013 to early 2014. Feed costs have fallen of late as domestic corn demand continues to lag. The export sales pace for corn is currently near a 10-year low in terms of commitments relative to what the USDA projects will ship out by the end of the marketing year. Further, South American production concerns have relaxed somewhat as Argentina’s weather has normalized of late and Brazilian weather has been a bit drier, aiding planting efforts. Although the weather for Argentina has normalized, USDA recently lowered the production potential due to the delayed planting status. Cattle prices have been … Get the Complete Report »

Corn
Corn margins have improved slightly since the middle of October as futures prices have strengthened while basis levels remain elevated. Harvest progress continues to advance at a rapid, near-record pace this year, with 91% of the crop harvested to date. Debates surrounding total production remain, as some market participants argue the USDA is still too high on the harvested acres estimate. USDA announced it would not make any changes to abandonment until the January crop report when production for the crop year is finalized. Demand prospects therefore will be the main focus for price direction in the near-term. Weekly ethanol production remains below last year’s level and is currently running 7.8% behind last year’s pace while the USDA estimates … Get the Complete Report »

Soybean
Nearby soybean margins have improved since the middle of October while deferred 2013 soybean margins have likewise strengthened during the period. Soybean harvest has advanced at a near-record pace this year as plant maturation occurred much earlier than normal due to the extreme heat this summer and early spring planting. The latest reports show that 87% of the crop has been harvested. With harvest advanced, the market will begin determining whether demand forecasts are achievable. NOPA recently released its crush figure for September, reporting 119.7 million bushels crushed for the month, up from 110.3 last year. NOPA members represent roughly 95% of all domestic crushing plants which would translate to approximately 126 million bushels crushed for the month including non-members of NOPA. The current USDA projection is for a crush rate of 1.54 billion bushels, translating to just over 128 million bushels per month. Export sales and shipments have been … Get the Complete Report »

Wheat
Wheat margins have strengthened a bit since the middle of October as futures prices have moved higher. Winter wheat plantings are now 88% complete with 63% of the crop emerged. Weather forecasts are slightly wetter past November 1 which should help early crop development prior to dormancy. Initial crop conditions were reported to be 40% good-to-excellent versus 46% at this time last year. On the global front, Ukraine recently announced a ban on exports after November 15 due to the poor harvest this past year and a lack of exportable surpluses. Russia also has produced a smaller crop and has seen domestic prices for wheat, flour, and barley increase of late causing the market to worry whether they will likewise place restrictions on exports as they did in 2010. With Egypt and China sourcing … Get the Complete Report »